Head to head
D. Rice vs Pedri
Two transparent 100-point cases. The same methodology, compared component by component.
Real-data provisional ranking
Every displayed component is computed from current API-Football fixture, event, player-stat, standings, and pre-match Elo evidence. The ranking remains provisional—not illustrative—until the locked 2024–2025 historical holdout gate is complete.
Rank #9
Declan Rice
Arsenal · Midfielder
Rank #1
Pedri
Barcelona · Midfielder
Compare the evidence
D. Rice
Role output is the 82th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
Pedri
Role output is the 86th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
Compare the evidence
D. Rice
Creation & progression is the 71th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
Pedri
Creation & progression is the 94th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
Compare the evidence
D. Rice
All-round role contribution is the 49th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
Pedri
All-round role contribution is the 80th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
Compare the evidence
D. Rice
Efficiency & execution is the 86th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
Pedri
Efficiency & execution is the 97th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
Compare the evidence
D. Rice
Availability combines 4739 minutes (85% of team opportunity), 56 appearances, and 70% above-median performances.
60% minutes share + 15% appearance share + 10% start share + 15% share of 30+ minute matches at or above the role median
Pedri
Availability combines 3301 minutes (63% of team opportunity), 46 appearances, and 88% above-median performances.
60% minutes share + 15% appearance share + 10% start share + 15% share of 30+ minute matches at or above the role median
Compare the evidence
D. Rice
Against opponents at or above the 60th pre-match Elo percentile: 31 appearances, 2687 minutes, and 54th role-impact percentile.
80% minutes-weighted role impact + 20% capped 900-minute volume
Pedri
Against opponents at or above the 60th pre-match Elo percentile: 18 appearances, 1255 minutes, and 60th role-impact percentile.
80% minutes-weighted role impact + 20% capped 900-minute volume
Compare the evidence
D. Rice
Knockout credit uses 11 appearances and 979 minutes, weighted from round of 32 through the final.
75% stage-and-minutes-weighted role impact + 25% capped 540-minute volume
Pedri
Knockout credit uses 9 appearances and 574 minutes, weighted from round of 32 through the final.
75% stage-and-minutes-weighted role impact + 25% capped 540-minute volume
Compare the evidence
D. Rice
Match-state events produce 9.25 leverage units from 15 goals/assists/penalty events; role-specific close-match actions add a 59th-percentile signal.
65% score-state goal/assist leverage (60% volume, 40% rate) + 35% position-specific close-match action rate
Pedri
Match-state events produce 6.35 leverage units from 13 goals/assists/penalty events; role-specific close-match actions add a 93th-percentile signal.
65% score-state goal/assist leverage (60% volume, 40% rate) + 35% position-specific close-match action rate
Compare the evidence
D. Rice
Team credit: Premier League winner (0.81 credit); UEFA Champions League runner up (0.78 credit); FIFA World Cup semi final (0.52 credit). Diminishing-return evidence is 1.43 against the disclosed 2.00 ceiling.
finish × prestige × route × participation × importance; credits then receive 1.0/0.6/0.3/0.1 diminishing weights
Pedri
Team credit: FIFA World Cup winner (1.22 credit); La Liga winner (0.71 credit); UEFA Champions League quarter final (0.22 credit). Diminishing-return evidence is 1.71 against the disclosed 2.00 ceiling.
finish × prestige × route × participation × importance; credits then receive 1.0/0.6/0.3/0.1 diminishing weights