Methodology 0.5.2-research-preview
Nothing hidden.
A configurable 100-point framework aligned to the post-2022 Ballon d’Or criteria. The engine computes; the AI explains.
Sustained individual performance
55
Position-specific output, creation, all-round contribution, execution, availability, consistency, and verified official individual accolades sustained across the eligibility window.
Decisive-performance premium
25
A bounded context premium for performance against strong pre-match Elo opponents, in knockout rounds, and in verified score-changing situations.
Team achievements
20
Verified finishes allocated by competition prestige, route difficulty, participation, and within-team importance.
Component model
Ten named contributions.
Within-position percentiles make forwards, midfielders, defenders, and goalkeepers comparable without pretending their jobs are the same.
Role output
signal: role_output_signal
Creation & progression
signal: creation_progression_signal
All-round role contribution
signal: all_round_role_signal
Efficiency & execution
signal: execution_signal
Availability & consistency
signal: availability_signal
Individual accolades
signal: individual_accolades_signal
Strong-opposition performance
signal: strong_opposition_signal
Knockout & final impact
signal: knockout_finals_signal
Match-swinging contribution
signal: match_swing_signal
Team performance & achievements
signal: team_achievement_signal
Individual accolades
Official honors, directly weighted.
This component contributes up to 10 points inside the 55-point sustained-individual-performance bucket. World Cup honors carry the highest direct values, continental awards come next, and domestic league or cup awards carry the lowest values.
View all 63 verified 2026 award records and holders
Unai Simon
Goalkeeper, defender or role-specific season award · FIFA World Cup · +4.00 direct
FIFA source ↗Sadio Mane
EURO, Copa América or AFCON Player of the Tournament · Africa Cup of Nations · +5.00 direct
CAF source ↗Yassine Bounou
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · Africa Cup of Nations · +1.25 direct
CAF source ↗Achraf Hakimi
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · Africa Cup of Nations · +1.25 direct
CAF source ↗Moussa Niakhate
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · Africa Cup of Nations · +1.25 direct
CAF source ↗Calvin Bassey
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · Africa Cup of Nations · +1.25 direct
CAF source ↗Noussair Mazraoui
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · Africa Cup of Nations · +1.25 direct
CAF source ↗Ademola Lookman
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · Africa Cup of Nations · +1.25 direct
CAF source ↗Pape Gueye
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · Africa Cup of Nations · +1.25 direct
CAF source ↗Idrissa Gueye
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · Africa Cup of Nations · +1.25 direct
CAF source ↗Brahim Diaz
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · Africa Cup of Nations · +1.25 direct
CAF source ↗Victor Osimhen
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · Africa Cup of Nations · +1.25 direct
CAF source ↗Sadio Mane
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · Africa Cup of Nations · +1.25 direct
CAF source ↗Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Champions League Player of the Season · UEFA Champions League · +4.50 direct
UEFA source ↗David Raya
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · UEFA Champions League · +1.25 direct
UEFA source ↗Marcos Llorente
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · UEFA Champions League · +1.25 direct
UEFA source ↗Marquinhos
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · UEFA Champions League · +1.25 direct
UEFA source ↗Gabriel Magalhaes
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · UEFA Champions League · +1.25 direct
UEFA source ↗Nuno Mendes
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · UEFA Champions League · +1.25 direct
UEFA source ↗Michael Olise
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · UEFA Champions League · +1.25 direct
UEFA source ↗Declan Rice
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · UEFA Champions League · +1.25 direct
UEFA source ↗Vitinha
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · UEFA Champions League · +1.25 direct
UEFA source ↗Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · UEFA Champions League · +1.25 direct
UEFA source ↗Ousmane Dembele
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · UEFA Champions League · +1.25 direct
UEFA source ↗Harry Kane
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · UEFA Champions League · +1.25 direct
UEFA source ↗Morgan Rogers
Other continental Player of the Season · UEFA Europa League · +3.00 direct
UEFA source ↗Emiliano Martinez
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · UEFA Europa League · +0.90 direct
UEFA source ↗Morgan Rogers
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · UEFA Europa League · +0.90 direct
UEFA source ↗Antony
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · UEFA Europa League · +0.90 direct
UEFA source ↗Bruno Fernandes
Domestic league Player of the Season · Premier League · +3.00 direct
Premier League source ↗David Raya
Goalkeeper, defender or role-specific season award · Premier League · +1.50 direct
Premier League source ↗Gregor Kobel
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · Bundesliga · +0.75 direct
Bundesliga source ↗Nico Schlotterbeck
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · Bundesliga · +0.75 direct
Bundesliga source ↗Jonathan Tah
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · Bundesliga · +0.75 direct
Bundesliga source ↗Dayot Upamecano
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · Bundesliga · +0.75 direct
Bundesliga source ↗Luka Vuskovic
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · Bundesliga · +0.75 direct
Bundesliga source ↗Joshua Kimmich
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · Bundesliga · +0.75 direct
Bundesliga source ↗Aleksandar Pavlovic
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · Bundesliga · +0.75 direct
Bundesliga source ↗Angelo Stiller
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · Bundesliga · +0.75 direct
Bundesliga source ↗Luis Diaz
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · Bundesliga · +0.75 direct
Bundesliga source ↗Harry Kane
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · Bundesliga · +0.75 direct
Bundesliga source ↗Michael Olise
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · Bundesliga · +0.75 direct
Bundesliga source ↗Robin Risser
Goalkeeper, defender or role-specific season award · Ligue 1 · +1.50 direct
Ligue 1 source ↗Willian Pacho
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · Ligue 1 · +0.75 direct
Ligue 1 source ↗Nuno Mendes
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · Ligue 1 · +0.75 direct
Ligue 1 source ↗Ousmane Dembele
Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection · Ligue 1 · +0.75 direct
Ligue 1 source ↗Mile Svilar
Goalkeeper, defender or role-specific season award · Serie A · +1.50 direct
Lega Serie A source ↗Marco Palestra
Goalkeeper, defender or role-specific season award · Serie A · +1.50 direct
Lega Serie A source ↗Nico Paz
Goalkeeper, defender or role-specific season award · Serie A · +1.50 direct
Lega Serie A source ↗Lautaro Martinez
Goalkeeper, defender or role-specific season award · Serie A · +1.50 direct
Lega Serie A source ↗Honors add inside each competition tier, then the tier cap controls overlap and the final component is capped at 10. The engine never infers an award from statistics or media coverage, and the LLM cannot add, remove, or reweight a record.
Vote forecast
Model the ballot without calling popularity merit.
The main Index remains a 100-point football score. A separate statistical forecast is configured as 70% merit and 30% sourced voter context. It estimates how the journalist electorate may vote only after regime-aware calibration.
Merit Index
70%
Vote context
30%
Status: failed holdout preview
Decisive trophy narrative
10 / 30A sourced forecast feature for the biggest team achievement and the player's prominence in that achievement. It deliberately models revealed ballot behavior and never changes football merit.
Empirical position prior
4 / 30A regime-aware coefficient learned from historical voting residuals, never applied to the position-neutral football merit score.
Club & league visibility
4 / 30A historical ballot-visibility prior estimated after controlling for merit, position, and achievements; it is distinct from team quality and competition strength.
Recognition & aura
5 / 30Time-decayed prior Ballon d'Or shortlist, top-ten, podium, and voting recognition; no manual reputation score, follower count, or subjective vibes.
Media momentum
7 / 30Source-weighted prominence, headline placement, positive candidacy framing, geographic breadth, and recency in audited football journalism; paid promotion, club PR, duplicate stories, and raw social volume are excluded.
Media momentum and recognition/aura together can contribute at most 12 of the 100 Vote Forecast points. Forecast coefficients must pass historical ballots and improve out-of-sample rank agreement without creating unacceptable club, league, nationality, or position bias. Prediction markets are a benchmark, not a hidden scoring input. Missing evidence blocks the forecast; the LLM never fills it.
Fair play is separate. It concerns verified discipline and sporting conduct; media attention, fame, and narrative are never labeled as class or fair play.
Holdout Spearman
0.518
Minimum edition ρ
0.361
Holdout Kendall
0.378
Current blocker: The frozen 2024–2025 holdout did not satisfy every publication threshold.
Position adjustment
Compare role to role first.
Forward
Role output: non penalty goals per90 35% · non penalty goals 20% · assists per90 15% · assists 15% · shots on per90 15%
Midfielder
Role output: assists per90 20% · assists 15% · key passes per90 25% · non penalty goals per90 10% · accurate passes per90 20% · shots on per90 10%
Defender
Role output: tackles per90 20% · interceptions per90 25% · blocks per90 15% · duels won per90 20% · accurate passes per90 10% · goal contributions per90 10%
Goalkeeper
Role output: save rate 30% · saves per90 15% · clean sheet rate 20% · goals conceded inverse 20% · penalties saved 15%
Competition calibration
One live registry, two disclosed inputs.
Performance weight adjusts the season-stat aggregation. Achievement prestige scales knockout and team-achievement evidence. Both values below come directly from the active engine competition registry.
World Cup
FIFA World Cup
Champions League
UEFA Champions League
Continental national-team championship
Africa Cup of Nations
Top-five domestic league
Premier League · La Liga · Bundesliga · Serie A · Ligue 1
Europa League
UEFA Europa League
Other covered league
Major League Soccer 2025 · Major League Soccer 2026
Conference League
UEFA Conference League
Domestic cup
FA Cup · Copa del Rey · DFB-Pokal · Coppa Italia · Coupe de France
“Team” means achievement plus the player’s contribution to that achievement: competition stage and prestige, route difficulty, participation, and importance. A squad medal alone cannot receive full credit. Club and league visibility are excluded here and live only in the separate vote forecast.
Validation gate
Modern-regime calibration.
Hold out 2024–2025.
The target is Spearman ρ ≥ 0.70 against the official Ballon d’Or top ten, plus top-five Jaccard and market-baseline comparison. The holdout years are not used to tune weights.
Season-based editions from 2022 onward are the primary calibration regime. Earlier editions inform historical priors only through explicit regime flags; raw vote totals are never compared across voting-system changes.
Every rank divergence is published with its component-level explanation. A disagreement is a football argument to inspect, not an error to hide.
No historical race is marked validated until the required API coverage and official reference rankings pass audit.
Missing data
Graceful degradation.
An unavailable football signal receives no imputed credit, lowers the player’s data-completeness score, and is identified in the component sentence. Scores with material gaps remain non-publishable. Missing jury context blocks the vote forecast entirely.
AI boundary
The model explains. It never scores.
Build-time explanations receive the final rank, named component decomposition, and only timestamped shortlist, market, or reporting evidence that passed the source schema. Vercel AI Gateway selects the model by configuration. The deterministic engine remains provider-independent and the model has no scoring authority.