Rank 12 · 2026 race
Declan Rice
Arsenal · England · Midfielder
Real-data provisional ranking
Every displayed component is computed from current API-Football fixture, event, player-stat, standings, and pre-match Elo evidence, plus dated official-source individual award records. The locked 2024–2025 vote-forecast holdout is complete but failed its publication thresholds; its experimental ranking is disclosed separately from football merit.
#12 in the index
No change since the previous snapshot
Explanation
Declan Rice: 70.1 merit score. StrongestComponent=Match-swinging contribution; limitingComponent=Individual accolades. Strong match-swinging output, role quality, and team credit underpin the score; individual official honors are modest.
Why the rank moved
The rank is unchanged at #12. No causal movement claim is made without a prior component decomposition.
Vote forecast context
Football case vs. vote environment.
This research layer estimates visibility and recognition around the journalist ballot. It never changes the player’s 100-point football merit score.
Pre-shortlist watchlist · as of August 18, 2026
Context
12.7 / 30
Vote forecast
41.4
forecast rank #22
Decisive trophy narrative
5.8 / 10Decisive trophy narrative contributes 5.8 of 10.0 context points: A sourced forecast feature for the biggest team achievement and the player's prominence in that achievement. It deliberately models revealed ballot behavior and never changes football merit.
Empirical position prior
2.6 / 4Empirical position prior contributes 2.6 of 4.0 context points: A regime-aware coefficient learned from historical voting residuals, never applied to the position-neutral football merit score.
Club & league visibility
3.0 / 4Club & league visibility contributes 3.0 of 4.0 context points: A historical ballot-visibility prior estimated after controlling for merit, position, and achievements; it is distinct from team quality and competition strength.
Recognition & aura
0.9 / 5Recognition & aura contributes 0.9 of 5.0 context points: Time-decayed prior Ballon d'Or shortlist, top-ten, podium, and voting recognition; no manual reputation score, follower count, or subjective vibes.
Media momentum
0.4 / 7Media momentum contributes 0.4 of 7.0 context points: Source-weighted prominence, headline placement, positive candidacy framing, geographic breadth, and recency in audited football journalism; paid promotion, club PR, duplicate stories, and raw social volume are excluded.
The completed historical calibration is published as a failed-holdout experiment: 5% merit, 25% individual output, 20% defensive trophy residual, and 50% jury context produced mean holdout Spearman rho 0.518, below the 0.700 publication threshold. It is available for analysis, not validated. The LLM never supplies a hidden weight. Prediction markets remain an external benchmark, and the LLM cannot add points or move a player. Next scheduled refresh: Oct 12, 2026.
Audited intelligence
Logic and nuance, without hidden points.
Watchlist plus one media-narrative claim; shortlist and market context unavailable.
Shortlist
Watchlist status is noted, but the official shortlist is unavailable in the supplied evidence.
Prediction markets
Market context is unavailable.
Uncertainty
No prediction-market evidence was supplied.
openai/gpt-5.4-mini · ballon-index-explanation-v0.3.2
Score waterfall
Base → ten components → 70.1
Each bar adds its published contribution. The final bar must equal the exact sum of the components or the build fails.
Full decomposition
Every point, in one sentence.
Role output
Role output is the 84th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
How this was calculated
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; raw action rates use frozen pre-match field-strength adjustment and ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
Source: API-Football embedded player-fixture statistics
Evidence: 56 observations · 100% coverage
key passes per 90
2.32
assists per 90
0.193
accurate passes per 90
60.295
assists
10.138
• API-Football opaque player ratings are excluded.
• Rates and totals are compared only within the same position.
• Positive actions receive a disclosed 0.85–1.15 field-strength scalar derived from frozen pre-match Elo.
12.6 / 15
Creation & progression
Creation & progression is the 73rd role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
How this was calculated
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; raw action rates use frozen pre-match field-strength adjustment and ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
Source: API-Football embedded player-fixture statistics
Evidence: 56 observations · 100% coverage
key passes per 90
2.32
accurate passes per 90
60.295
assists per 90
0.193
successful dribbles per 90
0.468
• API-Football opaque player ratings are excluded.
• Rates and totals are compared only within the same position.
• Positive actions receive a disclosed 0.85–1.15 field-strength scalar derived from frozen pre-match Elo.
7.3 / 10
All-round role contribution
All-round role contribution is the 57th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
How this was calculated
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; raw action rates use frozen pre-match field-strength adjustment and ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
Source: API-Football embedded player-fixture statistics
Evidence: 56 observations · 100% coverage
tackles per 90
2.116
interceptions per 90
1.235
duels won per 90
4.113
duel success
0.589
• API-Football opaque player ratings are excluded.
• Rates and totals are compared only within the same position.
• Positive actions receive a disclosed 0.85–1.15 field-strength scalar derived from frozen pre-match Elo.
4.5 / 8
Efficiency & execution
Efficiency & execution is the 83rd role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
How this was calculated
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; raw action rates use frozen pre-match field-strength adjustment and ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
Source: API-Football embedded player-fixture statistics
Evidence: 56 observations · 100% coverage
pass completion
0.885
duel success
0.589
dribble success
0.51
shot accuracy
0.502
• API-Football opaque player ratings are excluded.
• Rates and totals are compared only within the same position.
• Positive actions receive a disclosed 0.85–1.15 field-strength scalar derived from frozen pre-match Elo.
5.8 / 7
Availability & consistency
Availability combines 4739 minutes (85% of team opportunity), 56 appearances, and 65% smooth consistency credit.
How this was calculated
60% minutes share + 15% appearance share + 10% start share + 15% smooth 30+ minute match-impact consistency
Source: API-Football fixture participation and team schedules
Evidence: 56 observations · 100% coverage
minutes
4739 minutes
minutes share
0.854
appearance share
0.918
consistency share
0.651
• Opportunity is calculated within each represented team-season-competition.
• Consistency uses unshrunk match impact and a smooth 0.40–0.60 credit curve instead of a noisy hard threshold.
4.2 / 5
Individual accolades
Verified individual honors: Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection (1.25). Tier caps convert 1.25 direct points to 1.25 of 10.0.
How this was calculated
published direct award points; sum within competition tier, apply the tier cap, sum tiers, then apply the 10-point component cap
Source: Official FIFA, confederation, UEFA, league, and players-union award records
Evidence: 1 observations · 100% coverage
• Uncapped direct points: 1.25.
• Tier credits after overlap caps: Champions League or equivalent 1.25.
• Final accolade component: 1.25/10.0.
• An absent official award is scored as zero; the LLM cannot add or alter honors.
1.2 / 10
Strong-opposition performance
Against opponents at or above the 75th pre-match Elo percentile: 27 appearances, 2379 minutes, and 54th role-impact percentile.
How this was calculated
85% minutes-weighted role impact + 15% capped 900-minute volume
Source: API-Football player-fixture statistics plus NinetyIQ leak-free pre-match Elo
Evidence: 27 observations · 100% coverage
strong-opposition matches
27
minutes
2379 minutes
mean role impact
0.539
• Opponent strength is frozen before kickoff.
• API-Football opaque player ratings are excluded.
3.0 / 5
Knockout & final impact
Knockout credit combines 0.30 event-leverage units from 1 goal/assist/penalty event with 11 appearances and 979 minutes.
How this was calculated
70% stage- and prestige-weighted event leverage + 25% stage-, prestige-, and minutes-weighted role impact + 5% capped 900-minute prestige volume
Source: API-Football event timelines and player-fixture statistics plus NinetyIQ leak-free pre-match Elo
Evidence: 11 observations · 100% coverage
knockout matches
11
minutes
979 minutes
knockout event leverage
0.301
mean role impact
0.503
• Knockout minutes contribute only 5% of this signal.
• Event leverage is adjusted for score state, match clock, knockout stage, competition prestige, and opponent strength.
• API-Football opaque player ratings are excluded.
6.3 / 8
Match-swinging contribution
Match-state events produce 6.63 leverage units from 15 goal/assist/penalty events; the score uses verified event leverage without a generalized role-output proxy.
How this was calculated
100% expected-points-added goal/assist leverage (65% volume, 35% rate); generalized role output receives no match-swing credit
Source: API-Football event timelines and player-fixture statistics
Evidence: 15 observations · 100% coverage
event leverage
6.634
score-changing event actions
15
• Goal leverage is the change in expected points from frozen pre-match Elo, live score, and match clock.
• Untimed generalized role actions are excluded from this component.
11.0 / 12
Team performance & achievements
Team credit: UEFA Champions League runner up (0.84 credit); Premier League winner (0.69 credit); FIFA World Cup semi final (0.57 credit). Diminishing-return evidence is 1.42 against the disclosed 2.00 ceiling.
How this was calculated
finish × prestige × route × participation × importance; credits then receive 1.0/0.6/0.3/0.1 diminishing weights
Source: API-Football standings, tournament results, player minutes, role impact, and pre-match Elo
Evidence: 3 observations · 100% coverage
UEFA Champions League
0.836
Premier League
0.688
FIFA World Cup
0.568
• Evidence is normalized to a 2.00 ceiling.
• Team success is not awarded equally to every squad member.
• Starting semi-finals and finals increases importance; bench status therefore reduces trophy credit.
14.2 / 20