Rank 20 · 2026 race
Gabriel Magalhães
Arsenal · Brazil · Defender
Real-data provisional ranking
Every displayed component is computed from current API-Football fixture, event, player-stat, standings, and pre-match Elo evidence, plus dated official-source individual award records. The locked 2024–2025 vote-forecast holdout is complete but failed its publication thresholds; its experimental ranking is disclosed separately from football merit.
#20 in the index
No change since the previous snapshot
Explanation
Gabriel Magalhães: score 65.8. Match-swinging contribution is the strongestComponent; Individual accolades is the limitingComponent. Match-swinging and team credit support the score, while official accolades are limited.
Why the rank moved
The rank is unchanged at #20. No causal movement claim is made without a prior component decomposition.
Vote forecast context
Football case vs. vote environment.
This research layer estimates visibility and recognition around the journalist ballot. It never changes the player’s 100-point football merit score.
Pre-shortlist watchlist · as of August 18, 2026
Context
9.6 / 30
Vote forecast
41.7
forecast rank #19
Decisive trophy narrative
5.6 / 10Decisive trophy narrative contributes 5.6 of 10.0 context points: A sourced forecast feature for the biggest team achievement and the player's prominence in that achievement. It deliberately models revealed ballot behavior and never changes football merit.
Empirical position prior
1.0 / 4Empirical position prior contributes 1.0 of 4.0 context points: A regime-aware coefficient learned from historical voting residuals, never applied to the position-neutral football merit score.
Club & league visibility
3.0 / 4Club & league visibility contributes 3.0 of 4.0 context points: A historical ballot-visibility prior estimated after controlling for merit, position, and achievements; it is distinct from team quality and competition strength.
Recognition & aura
0.0 / 5Recognition & aura contributes 0.0 of 5.0 context points: Time-decayed prior Ballon d'Or shortlist, top-ten, podium, and voting recognition; no manual reputation score, follower count, or subjective vibes.
Media momentum
0.0 / 7Media momentum contributes 0.0 of 7.0 context points: Source-weighted prominence, headline placement, positive candidacy framing, geographic breadth, and recency in audited football journalism; paid promotion, club PR, duplicate stories, and raw social volume are excluded.
The completed historical calibration is published as a failed-holdout experiment: 5% merit, 25% individual output, 20% defensive trophy residual, and 50% jury context produced mean holdout Spearman rho 0.518, below the 0.700 publication threshold. It is available for analysis, not validated. The LLM never supplies a hidden weight. Prediction markets remain an external benchmark, and the LLM cannot add points or move a player. Next scheduled refresh: Oct 12, 2026.
Audited intelligence
Logic and nuance, without hidden points.
Watchlist status; market context unavailable.
Shortlist
Watchlist noted in the supplied research source; this is not the official shortlist.
Prediction markets
Market context unavailable.
Uncertainty
No market evidence was supplied.
openai/gpt-5.4-mini · ballon-index-explanation-v0.3.2
Score waterfall
Base → ten components → 65.8
Each bar adds its published contribution. The final bar must equal the exact sum of the components or the build fails.
Full decomposition
Every point, in one sentence.
Role output
Role output is the 59th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
How this was calculated
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; raw action rates use frozen pre-match field-strength adjustment and ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
Source: API-Football embedded player-fixture statistics
Evidence: 51 observations · 100% coverage
interceptions per 90
0.745
tackles per 90
1.355
duels won per 90
5.628
blocks per 90
1.243
• API-Football opaque player ratings are excluded.
• Rates and totals are compared only within the same position.
• Positive actions receive a disclosed 0.85–1.15 field-strength scalar derived from frozen pre-match Elo.
8.9 / 15
Creation & progression
Creation & progression is the 70th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
How this was calculated
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; raw action rates use frozen pre-match field-strength adjustment and ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
Source: API-Football embedded player-fixture statistics
Evidence: 51 observations · 100% coverage
accurate passes per 90
57.945
pass completion
0.891
key passes per 90
0.301
successful dribbles per 90
0.047
• API-Football opaque player ratings are excluded.
• Rates and totals are compared only within the same position.
• Positive actions receive a disclosed 0.85–1.15 field-strength scalar derived from frozen pre-match Elo.
7.0 / 10
All-round role contribution
All-round role contribution is the 58th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
How this was calculated
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; raw action rates use frozen pre-match field-strength adjustment and ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
Source: API-Football embedded player-fixture statistics
Evidence: 51 observations · 100% coverage
interceptions per 90
0.745
tackles per 90
1.355
duels won per 90
5.628
blocks per 90
1.243
• API-Football opaque player ratings are excluded.
• Rates and totals are compared only within the same position.
• Positive actions receive a disclosed 0.85–1.15 field-strength scalar derived from frozen pre-match Elo.
4.6 / 8
Efficiency & execution
Efficiency & execution is the 79th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
How this was calculated
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; raw action rates use frozen pre-match field-strength adjustment and ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
Source: API-Football embedded player-fixture statistics
Evidence: 51 observations · 100% coverage
duel success
0.65
pass completion
0.891
dribble success
0.546
discipline
0.571
• API-Football opaque player ratings are excluded.
• Rates and totals are compared only within the same position.
• Positive actions receive a disclosed 0.85–1.15 field-strength scalar derived from frozen pre-match Elo.
5.5 / 7
Availability & consistency
Availability combines 4351 minutes (78% of team opportunity), 51 appearances, and 73% smooth consistency credit.
How this was calculated
60% minutes share + 15% appearance share + 10% start share + 15% smooth 30+ minute match-impact consistency
Source: API-Football fixture participation and team schedules
Evidence: 51 observations · 100% coverage
minutes
4351 minutes
minutes share
0.776
appearance share
0.823
consistency share
0.728
• Opportunity is calculated within each represented team-season-competition.
• Consistency uses unshrunk match impact and a smooth 0.40–0.60 credit curve instead of a noisy hard threshold.
3.9 / 5
Individual accolades
Verified individual honors: Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection (1.25). Tier caps convert 1.25 direct points to 1.25 of 10.0.
How this was calculated
published direct award points; sum within competition tier, apply the tier cap, sum tiers, then apply the 10-point component cap
Source: Official FIFA, confederation, UEFA, league, and players-union award records
Evidence: 1 observations · 100% coverage
• Uncapped direct points: 1.25.
• Tier credits after overlap caps: Champions League or equivalent 1.25.
• Final accolade component: 1.25/10.0.
• An absent official award is scored as zero; the LLM cannot add or alter honors.
1.2 / 10
Strong-opposition performance
Against opponents at or above the 75th pre-match Elo percentile: 22 appearances, 1934 minutes, and 56th role-impact percentile.
How this was calculated
85% minutes-weighted role impact + 15% capped 900-minute volume
Source: API-Football player-fixture statistics plus NinetyIQ leak-free pre-match Elo
Evidence: 22 observations · 100% coverage
strong-opposition matches
22
minutes
1934 minutes
mean role impact
0.56
• Opponent strength is frozen before kickoff.
• API-Football opaque player ratings are excluded.
3.1 / 5
Knockout & final impact
Knockout credit combines 0.79 event-leverage units from 1 goal/assist/penalty event with 10 appearances and 912 minutes.
How this was calculated
70% stage- and prestige-weighted event leverage + 25% stage-, prestige-, and minutes-weighted role impact + 5% capped 900-minute prestige volume
Source: API-Football event timelines and player-fixture statistics plus NinetyIQ leak-free pre-match Elo
Evidence: 10 observations · 100% coverage
knockout matches
10
minutes
912 minutes
knockout event leverage
0.786
mean role impact
0.539
• Knockout minutes contribute only 5% of this signal.
• Event leverage is adjusted for score state, match clock, knockout stage, competition prestige, and opponent strength.
• API-Football opaque player ratings are excluded.
6.9 / 8
Match-swinging contribution
Match-state events produce 5.96 leverage units from 10 goal/assist/penalty events; the score uses verified event leverage without a generalized role-output proxy.
How this was calculated
100% expected-points-added goal/assist leverage (65% volume, 35% rate); generalized role output receives no match-swing credit
Source: API-Football event timelines and player-fixture statistics
Evidence: 10 observations · 100% coverage
event leverage
5.963
score-changing event actions
10
• Goal leverage is the change in expected points from frozen pre-match Elo, live score, and match clock.
• Untimed generalized role actions are excluded from this component.
11.7 / 12
Team performance & achievements
Team credit: UEFA Champions League runner up (0.83 credit); Premier League winner (0.72 credit); FIFA World Cup round of 16 (0.09 credit). Diminishing-return evidence is 1.30 against the disclosed 2.00 ceiling.
How this was calculated
finish × prestige × route × participation × importance; credits then receive 1.0/0.6/0.3/0.1 diminishing weights
Source: API-Football standings, tournament results, player minutes, role impact, and pre-match Elo
Evidence: 4 observations · 100% coverage
UEFA Champions League
0.834
Premier League
0.718
FIFA World Cup
0.092
FA Cup
0.039
• Evidence is normalized to a 2.00 ceiling.
• Team success is not awarded equally to every squad member.
• Starting semi-finals and finals increases importance; bench status therefore reduces trophy credit.
13.0 / 20